House prices will rise due to donations from parents
House prices will continue to rise as the tax-free donation from parents is increasingly used to outbid a house. The amount that you can give tax-free for buying a property is € 103,643 once.
In the years before 2017, this was ‘only’ € 50,000. The reason for this increase was the previous economic crisis, with the idea of helping starters out of debt.
The arrangement is no longer necessary
According to Rabobank economists, this is no longer necessary and they prefer to opt-out of this arrangement. This amount is mainly used to outbid, which drives house prices further up. Besides, the state is missing out on approximately € 190 million in gift tax per year, the Ministry of Finance estimates.
Lower increase due to abolition of gift tax exemption
According to Nic Vrieselaar (housing market economist RaboResearch), the house price will drop from the end of 2020, and this will continue in 2021. But it will not be a very big decrease. A few percent won’t do that much against the high house prices. But why are these prices so high? This is due to scarcity, broader loan standards and low-interest rates.
The coronavirus is the cause of the small drop. The virus will result in an economic crisis where, unfortunately, many people will lose their jobs. Especially starters will have a hard time. They often still have a flexible contract and are most likely to be fired.
Besides, in addition to competition from other starters with a higher salary, starters also face competition from starters with a donation. This gift from their parents allows them to offer more, which will drive up house prices. “That is annoying for people who have less wealthy parents”, said Vrieselaar. House prices are expected to rise less if the gift tax exemption would abolish.
Housing market dependent on development of coronavirus
Whether the doubt will ease, which will bring back more demand and supply to the housing market, depends on the development of the virus. When a vaccine or medicine comes to the market, unemployment will decrease, which is also positive for the housing market. However, if this won’t be the case, the damage on the housing market will become very serious, and this will result in a big crisis.
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